ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the prevalent feature and variant tendency of Scrub Typhus in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2012, and provide a basis of strategy and measure on prevention and protection of Scrub Typhus. Methods Clinical information of all individual cases was gained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Cochran-Armitage trend χ2 test was used to describe the variance of Scrub Typhus incidence and the clinical cases of 2013 were predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, while descriptive epidemiological analysis was adopted to describe the endemic distribution, seasonal characteristics and population distribution of Scrub Typhus. Results A total of 8 163 Scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2012. Annual mean incidence of the disease was 1.15/100 000 with the incidence showing an upward tendency (χ2 = 3 191.976, P < 0.01). There were 14 dead clinical cases reported with a fatality rate to be 1.72‰(14/8 163). Totally 3 166 people were predicted to infect Scrub Typhus in 2013 by ARIMA model. The disease was prevalent from the end of May to early October and the peak time was in late August (Z = 2 303.71, P < 0.01). The top five cities developed Scrub Typhus were Zhaoqing, Guangzhou, Yunfu, Shaoguan and Qingyuan. Male-female ratio was 1.00 ∶ 1.08 in all reported cases in which 52.78%(4 309/8 163) of them aged from 40 to 65 years old and 59.30%(4 841/8 163) of them were farmers. Conclusions The incidence of Scrub Typhus is rising in Guangdong Province, with the prevalent peak in summer and autumn, and rural populations are at high risk. The most effective preventions are strengthening health education , enhancing individual protection and protecting key populations in special districts.